Poll: Democrats' confidence that votes will be counted fairly drops ahead of the midterms

Democratic voters are far less sure than they were four years ago that their ballots will be counted correctly. A national survey released Wednesday found that 55% of registered Democrats have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in an accurate count for the Nov. 3 midterms. In 2022 that figure stood at 75%.

Republicans moved the other way. About 38% of GOP voters now say they trust the count, up from 26% before the last midterms. Even so, they remain less confident than Democrats. Independents held steady at 34% in both years.

Across all registered voters, trust slipped from 50% to 45%. The poll of 1,119 adults, including 925 registered voters, was taken Oct. 8 through Oct. 12 using a national research panel run by NORC at the University of Chicago. The margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Fears about the White House

The biggest split is over the role of the president. About 9 in 10 Democratic voters call a president trying to sway election outcomes a major problem, a view held by only about 2 in 10 Republicans. Overall about 6 in 10 voters see it as a serious issue.

Some Democrats said their doubts come from moves by the administration to widen federal power over elections, from a lawsuit against California officials over voter rolls to a Justice Department plan to send 1,000 monitors to polling places. A 50-year-old Democrat in Illinois said his trust in the system had never been lower but that he still plans to vote because it is the one power he has.

An independent voter in South Carolina said he will skip mail voting and cast his ballot in person because he worries about meddling with the Postal Service.

What worries Republicans

GOP voters are more focused on ineligible people casting ballots. About 7 in 10 Republicans call that a major problem compared with 25% of Democrats. A 67-year-old Republican in Oklahoma said he feels better about this election because he believes officials will be careful with the president watching.

Large shares of voters in both parties agree on some threats. About 7 in 10 call false election information made with artificial intelligence a major problem and the same share say so about states drawing district maps to favor one party. Roughly 6 in 10 are worried about foreign governments trying to tip the results.

Little faith in the high court

Only 17% of voters are extremely or very confident the Supreme Court would handle a midterm election case fairly and without partisanship. That is down from 24% in October 2024. Half of voters say they have little or no confidence in the court on that question.

Most voters back a photo ID requirement at the polls and proof of citizenship to register. Smaller majorities support same-day registration while fewer than half favor mailing a ballot to every registered voter.