Latino voters swing toward Democrats in NBC/Telemundo midterm poll

Latino voters who helped return Donald Trump to the White House in 2024 are peeling away ahead of the 2026 midterms, according to a new NBC News/Telemundo survey that gives Democrats a commanding lead among registered Latino adults — and a warning to Republicans who banked on lasting realignment.

The headline numbers

Among 800 registered Latino voters interviewed Sept. 21–28, 59% want Democrats to control Congress compared with 35% who prefer Republicans — a 24-point gap that is twice as large as Democrats' lead in the September 2024 edition of the same poll. President Trump's approval among Latino voters sits at 27%. The survey, conducted by Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research and Republican pollster Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.

Interest is unusually high: 72% rate their midterm interest a 10 out of 10, up from 54% at this point in 2024. Fifty-four percent say their vote is meant to signal opposition to Trump, while 21% say it signals support.

Economy first, immigration close behind

Cost of living tops the issue list. Two years ago, Latino voters gave Trump a four-point edge over then-Vice President Kamala Harris on handling the economy; today they give Democrats a 21-point advantage on the same question. About two-thirds say Trump's policies have hurt the economy, and a similar share say his immigration enforcement has gone too far — even as large majorities still back deporting undocumented immigrants who commit serious crimes.

A parallel CBS News/YouGov survey released the same weekend also showed Democrats ahead among Hispanic likely voters, reinforcing that the NBC/Telemundo swing is not a one-poll fluke. Still, pollsters caution that midterm electorates are older and more partisan than presidential ones, so conversion from preference to turnout remains the open question.

NBC's Politics Desk noted that roughly 22% of Latino Trump 2024 voters say they do not plan to back Republicans this fall, including 14% who now prefer Democrats. Gender and geography still matter: Latina women lean more Democratic than Latino men, and Florida Latinos look less Democratic than Latinos elsewhere — a reminder that the national swing may not land uniformly on election night.

Why districts care

Latino voters made up roughly a tenth of the midterm electorate in recent cycles. Democrats see openings in House and Senate contests across Arizona, Nevada, California, New York, and parts of Texas where Latino turnout can decide thin margins. Republicans point out that their share of the Latino vote remains higher than in most NBC polls before the 2024 cycle — evidence, they argue, of a longer-term shift even if the midterm ballot tilts blue for now.

Operatives on both sides are already testing Spanish-language ads that emphasize grocery prices, rents, and health-care premiums rather than border spectacle alone. Community organizations in Phoenix, Las Vegas, and the Rio Grande Valley report heavier volunteer interest than in 2022 — another sign that Latino engagement may set the midterm's tempo.

Redistricting fights in Florida and Texas were partly built on the assumption that 2024 Latino gains would stick. This poll suggests that assumption is shaky if prices stay high and enforcement remains the public face of immigration policy.

Bottom line

The NBC/Telemundo findings do not guarantee Democratic victories, and the party's own image among Latinos has not improved much in two years. But for a midterm that could hinge on suburban and Sun Belt districts with large Hispanic electorates, the message is clear: the 2024 Latino surge for Republicans is not locked in — and cost-of-living politics may decide whether it returns.