Latino early voting is running ahead of 2024 in counties that have reported

Latino voters are casting early ballots at a pace that beats the last presidential election. A new analysis by the Democratic data firm TargetSmart found that nearly 112,000 Latinos had voted early as of Oct. 8. At the same point in 2024 the number was about 106,000.

What the numbers show

The analysis covers the 229 counties that are reporting early votes so far. Many of them are in Michigan and Ohio and Wisconsin and Virginia and New Jersey and Florida. In those counties Latinos make up nearly 8% of the early vote which is a bigger share than at this stage in 2022 or 2024.

TargetSmart senior adviser Tom Bonier called it unusual for any group to top presidential-year turnout at this point. Latino turnout normally falls more than other groups in midterms. He said an early surge could point to historic Latino engagement. He also noted that counties with the largest jumps in Latino turnout tend to be places that have seen high-profile immigration enforcement.

Why it matters

A national poll this week put President Trump's approval among Latino voters at 27% and showed Democrats leading the congressional matchup among them 59% to 35%. Roughly 74% of Latinos disapprove of his handling of the economy and 69% disapprove on immigration. Cost of living and enforcement are the two issues driving interest.

Research from Equis shows Latinos make up over 10% of eligible voters in 20 battleground House districts and over 20% in about a dozen of them. Equis managing director Nick Ahamed warned that the early numbers could mislead. States with huge Latino populations such as Texas and California and New York and Pennsylvania have not yet reported meaningful early totals.