Lauren Boebert, one of the loudest voices on the right in the U.S. House, is on track to lose her seat. Democrat Eileen Laubacher, a retired Navy rear admiral, was projected on Monday to win Colorado's 4th Congressional District, a stretch of the Eastern Plains and Douglas County long seen as the most Republican seat in the state.

With roughly 98% of ballots tallied Monday night, Laubacher held 48.8% of the vote to 47.9% for Boebert, a gap of a little more than 3,300 votes out of about 381,000 cast. Libertarian Douglas Mangeris drew about 3.3%. Some major vote counters had not yet called the contest.

Laubacher did not wait. She claimed the win Monday and flew to Washington to join other incoming lawmakers at orientation for new members. She thanked voters across the district for their trust and said her run had been about people rather than party labels.

Boebert holds off on conceding

Boebert, 39, has not given up. She told reporters she wants to see the remaining military and overseas ballots before deciding anything, a count that may run until Nov. 13 under state law. In a social media post she likened an early victory claim to frosting a cake before it is baked. Her campaign has also hinted at a recount request while pointing to what it called unusual voting patterns without offering proof.

Colorado orders an automatic recount only when the margin is under half of one percent of the winner's total. A losing candidate outside that window may still ask for one but has to pay for it. The secretary of state said Monday that the state's elections are safe and accurate and that every valid ballot will be counted.

A 30-year Navy career

Laubacher spent more than three decades in the Navy, serving as a defense attache in India and later as a senior South Asia adviser on the National Security Council. On the trail she leaned on cost of living worries. She said she logged 40,000 miles over 17 months while visiting all 21 counties in the district.

End of a stormy House run

Boebert first won a House seat in 2020 by ousting a five-term Republican in a primary. She came within 546 votes of losing in 2022, then moved to the redder 4th District for 2024 and won it by double digits. Over the years she heckled a president during a State of the Union speech, clashed with two Republican speakers and broke with her party's leaders to push for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files.

The president backed her days before the election and called her a loyal warrior, even after attacking her earlier this year for campaigning beside Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie. Her likely defeat would make the 4th District one of the most striking pickups for Democrats in a midterm that already handed them both chambers of Congress.