Eleven more House races shift toward Democrats as GOP seats in the Midwest look shaky

Eleven more U.S. House races moved in Democrats' direction Friday in new ratings from a widely followed nonpartisan election forecaster. Every change favored Democrats, adding to signs that Republicans could lose their House majority on Nov. 3.

About half of the shifts came in Ohio, Nebraska and Kansas. The forecaster said voters in those Midwestern red states are frustrated with how both Washington and their own state governments are handling the economy. All three states also have Senate contests that have turned competitive.

A toss-up in Montana

Montana's 1st District, which President Donald Trump carried by about 12 points in 2024, moved into the toss-up column. Five more districts slid from likely Republican to lean Republican: Minnesota's 1st, New York's 21st, Ohio's 10th and 15th and South Carolina's 1st. Four of those five went for Trump by double digits.

Three seats once rated solid Republican are now seen as only likely Republican. On the Democratic side, Florida's 25th District moved from toss-up to lean Democratic while Ohio's 1st District went from lean to likely Democratic.

Money follows the map

The forecaster noted that big outside groups on both sides are now spending heavily in these districts. Democrats' House Majority PAC and the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund are both putting money in, a sign each party sees the seats as winnable.

It also pointed to a set of districts that once backed President Barack Obama but drifted toward Republicans over the last decade. Those seats now look more competitive than they have in years.

Where the House stands

After the latest moves, 21 House races are rated toss-ups. Democrats have more than 210 seats rated at least leaning their way. A party needs 218 seats to control the chamber.

The new ratings landed a day after campaign finance reports showed Democratic candidates far outraising Republicans in many of the closest Senate races.