María Elvira Salazar warns her party that Latino voters feel betrayed on immigration

In Little Havana's Domino Park, where Cuban Americans gather over games of dominoes, an ordinary afternoon last week ended with police arresting a player after a dispute with a city worker. The scene left other regulars worried about deportations. It also set off a loud argument over who is to blame for the rising cost of living.

That argument is playing out across Florida's 27th Congressional District, a Miami-Dade seat that is more than 70 percent Latino. It is a warning sign for Republicans, whose 2024 gains leaned heavily on Latino voters. That year the GOP cut the Democratic edge with Latinos nationwide to about 3 points from 25 points four years earlier.

An ad aimed at the White House

Rep. María Elvira Salazar, a Cuban American Republican in her third term, has been sounding the alarm. Last month she stood in front of the White House for a TV ad telling President Donald Trump his immigration crackdown had gone too far. She said the same Hispanics who helped him win in 2024 now feel betrayed.

Trump responded by sharing a post that called her a back stabber. Salazar said she did not take it as an attack and later spoke with him directly. She said she was simply telling the boss what people in her community are feeling.

Many Cuban Americans in her district have stuck with Republicans for years. But friends and relatives of many voters have been caught up in deportations. A recent survey of Latino registered voters found they would back Democrats over Republicans for Congress by 57 percent to 31 percent if the election were held now.

A long push for relief

Salazar has fought hard-line immigration policy before. For several years she has pushed a bill she calls the Dignity Act. It would shield longtime immigrants who keep key industries running, such as hotel, construction and farm workers, from deportation.

Some voters say her change of tone comes too late. One Democratic voter at Domino Park said she backed the administration and its money for immigration enforcement until the last hour. He plans to vote a straight Democratic ticket.

A close race in Miami

Her Democratic challenger, Eliott Rodriguez, is also a former TV journalist with Cuban roots. He wants to overhaul the immigration court system and restore food aid that was cut. He said Democrats were wrong to treat Florida as a lost cause.

Eduardo Gamarra, a political scientist at Florida International University, said the weak local economy tops voters' worries, with deportations close behind. Polls have moved toward Democrats in recent weeks but nonpartisan forecasters still rate the seat as leaning Republican. Gamarra said the GOP will need its strong turnout machine to hold it.