Early voting surges in key Senate states as Texas and Kansas race past 2022 totals

Two weeks before Election Day, voters in many of the states that will decide who controls the U.S. Senate are casting early ballots at a much faster pace than in the last midterms. A state-by-state review of early vote counts through Tuesday shows big jumps in Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Maine and North Carolina.

Texas stands out. Close to 1 million ballots have already been cast there even though in-person early voting only began Monday. At the same point in 2022 the total was about 550,000, which makes this year's count roughly 74% higher.

Kansas has more than doubled its early vote. More than 55,000 people have voted so far compared with about 27,000 at this stage four years ago. Ohio, Maine and North Carolina are each running more than 30% ahead of 2022 when early in-person and mail ballots are added together.

Why the numbers matter

Democrats are trying to take Republican-held Senate seats in every one of those states. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber. In most of the states where party data is available, Republicans make up a smaller slice of the early vote than they did in 2022.

Across the country more than 13 million mail and early in-person votes have been cast, up from about 9 million at the same point in the last midterms. Part of that rise comes from states that added early voting or began publishing more of their data since 2022.

Anger over tariffs, the high cost of living and higher gas and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran has put Republicans on defense in places the party did not expect to fight for this year. The party out of power in Washington usually gains ground in a midterm.

Races drawing crowds

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for the seat now held by Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton beat in a primary runoff. Talarico is trying to become the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas in more than 30 years. Gov. Greg Abbott also faces a challenge from Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.

Republicans recently put close to $12 million into Kansas to protect Sen. Roger Marshall against Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state the GOP carried by 16 points in 2024. In Ohio, about 156,000 more ballots are in than at this point in 2022, a 30% rise, as spending on the Senate race nears $500 million. In Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson, the early count is up 39%.

Where turnout is flat

Michigan and Georgia, two states where Democrats are defending Senate seats, have strong early numbers that are close to their 2022 pace. Both states set midterm turnout records that year. In Iowa, which has close races for governor, Senate and three House seats, early voting is about 6% lower than it was two weeks out in 2022.