With a month to go, Democrats hold the midterm edge as Senate races tighten in Texas, Ohio and Kansas

With less than four weeks until Election Day on Nov. 3, the national political landscape has tilted toward Democrats, and a fresh round of Senate polling suggests the fight for control of the chamber is no longer a long shot for the party out of power.

President Trump's approval rating averages around 37% in recent polls, tied for the lowest pre-midterm mark for any president in half a century. The only other president that low in that period was George W. Bush in 2006, when Republicans lost both chambers. In the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, 53% of Americans said they strongly disapprove of Trump's job performance, the highest in the survey's history.

The House: Democrats favored

The Cook Political Report now projects a net gain of five to 15 House seats for Democrats, which would give them roughly 220 to 230 seats in January, above the 218 needed for a majority. In an average of 2026 polls, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by about nine points. In each of the past seven midterms, the party ahead on that question has gained seats.

Enthusiasm also favors Democrats. A CBS poll found 84% of Democrats and 82% of independents said they will definitely vote, compared with 77% of Republicans.

Analysts point to several factors that could limit Democratic gains: mid-decade redistricting in several states that protects Republican incumbents, a shrinking number of truly competitive districts, a GOP fundraising edge and the Democratic Party's own weak favorability.

The Senate: a wider map

The bigger shift has come in the Senate. Six races have moved toward Democrats in Cook's ratings since June. YouGov polling of likely voters released Wednesday found Democrats ahead in three states Republicans currently hold.

In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, a former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, leads Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has Trump's endorsement, 50% to 44%. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 45%. Kansas is closer still, with Adam Hamilton, a Republican-turned-Democrat, at 48% in a near-even race.

Democrats also lead in two seats they are defending: Rep. Chris Pappas holds a 51% to 43% edge in New Hampshire, and Abdul El-Sayed narrowly leads former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan. Florida bucks the trend, with Republican Sen. Ashley Moody ahead of Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon 49% to 44%.

Pollsters caution that leads of a few points are within or near the margin of error, and that these results alone do not mean seats will flip.

Why voters are frustrated

The economy remains the top issue. Inflation is outpacing wage growth, gas prices have jumped because of the Iran war, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike in September is making mortgages and car loans more expensive. An AP-NORC poll found 65% of Americans say higher prices are more the result of Trump's policies than of factors outside his control.

Two swing groups, independents and Latino voters, have soured on the president during his second term, a particular problem for Republicans in competitive districts in Texas, Arizona, Nevada and California. At the same time, Democrats are competing hard for working-class voters in the industrial Midwest, where candidates like Brown are running on wages and trade.

Trump has urged supporters to "pretend" he is on the ballot, betting that his base will turn out as it does in presidential years. Whether that strategy can overcome historical midterm patterns, which have seen the president's party lose House seats in 18 of 20 midterms since World War II, will be settled on Nov. 3.