South Texas Latino voters are up for grabs again in three House races

Latino voters in South Texas who swung hard toward Republicans in 2024 are back in play with three weeks left before Election Day. New polling and campaign stops from Laredo to the Rio Grande Valley show majority-Hispanic border districts that could decide which party controls the House.

Three districts on a knife edge

One major ratings firm rates Texas' 28th District as lean Democratic while the neighboring 15th and 34th are toss-ups. In the 28th Rep. Henry Cuellar a longtime Laredo Democrat faces Republican Tano Tijerina a former Webb County judge who switched parties. In the 15th Rep. Monica De La Cruz is fighting Tejano singer Bobby Pulido. In the 34th Democrat Vicente Gonzalez is challenged by Eric Flores a National Guard veteran and former federal prosecutor.

A recent survey for that firm found Democratic statewide candidates in Texas leading among likely Hispanic voters by about two to one. A national poll of Latino voters released Oct. 4 found only 27 percent approved of the president and 59 percent preferred Democratic control of Congress.

Cost of living over party loyalty

Affordability tops the list for many Hispanic voters. UnidosUS polling in Texas ranked cost of living jobs and health care above immigration. Restaurant owner Daniel Lopez Jr. in Webb County said higher food prices and thinner crowds have him pinched even as he still favors a strong border.

Cuellar told visitors in Laredo that Democrats have to talk kitchen-table issues and border security without extreme positions. He remains a retail-politics force in a district that backed the Republican presidential ticket in 2024 yet kept sending him back to Washington.

A realignment still unsettled

Republican strategists once hoped the 2024 rightward shift among Hispanic voters was permanent especially after Texas and Florida redrew maps. Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha said Latino voters are angry now and that anger helps Democrats this cycle. Republican strategist Mike Madrid warned that a return toward Democrats does not mean the old loyalty is locked in again.

Tijerina dismisses talk of a slide and says border security remains a Republican strength. With early voting nearing and control of Congress possibly hinging on a handful of seats the South Texas Latino electorate is once again the audience both parties are racing to win.