Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan stay locked in a tight Alaska Senate race as early voting opens Monday

Alaska's Senate race remains one of the closest in the country with early voting opening Monday. A Democratic-aligned poll released over the weekend shows former Rep. Mary Peltola ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by a single point. Other recent surveys show her with a lead as large as seven.

What the polls say

The new poll surveyed 578 registered voters on Oct. 14 and 15. It put Peltola at 48 percent and Sullivan at 47 percent. Because the pollster works with Democrats the result should be weighed with care. Several independent surveys also show Peltola ahead.

A poll of 1,200 likely voters on Oct. 9 and 10 had her at 48.2 percent to 42.6 percent in the first round. It showed her winning the final round of ranked-choice counting 50.1 percent to 48 percent. A national newspaper poll in late September had her up 50 to 43. Sullivan last led in a poll taken by a conservative firm in late September. A leading forecaster has moved the race from a toss-up to leaning Democratic.

Prices and the Iran war on the debate stage

The two met in a debate Thursday night. Peltola blamed the war with Iran for high prices and said Sullivan had voted for it 14 times. Sullivan said her record in the House was against producing more Alaskan energy. Both said they opposed buying Russian diesel.

Cost is a front-line issue in a state where regular gas averaged $4.96 a gallon on Thursday. The national average was $4.33. A utility executive has warned there may not be enough natural gas to meet demand this winter.

Why Alaska matters

Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate and Democrats need to flip four seats to take control. Democrats have not held the seat since early 2015 when Sullivan beat Sen. Mark Begich. The president visited the state Tuesday to boost Sullivan.

Peltola made history in 2022 as the first Alaska Native elected to Congress. She won a 2022 special election to the U.S. House and served in Congress before running for the Senate. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting so second choices can matter in a tight finish.

Early voting in Alaska runs from Monday through Nov. 3. Peltola's campaign says it has 15,000 volunteers across the state. Sullivan has stressed that he sometimes breaks with the administration and that more Alaskan energy would lower costs. With a poll gap this narrow both campaigns will spend the final stretch trying to persuade the voters who are still undecided.