One day before the midterm elections a leading nonpartisan election forecaster moved Michigan's open Senate seat out of the toss-up column. The race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers now leans toward El-Sayed, a change that leaves Democrats better placed to win control of the Senate than Republicans are to keep it.

The shift came in the forecaster's last set of Senate ratings for the 2026 cycle, released Monday evening. It caps a chaotic final stretch in Michigan that included a stunning cross-party endorsement from El-Sayed's former primary rival.

Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to El-Sayed, endorsed Rogers on Sunday. The move angered party leaders and set off talk about whether she could face discipline from House Democrats. It also seemed to help El-Sayed raise money: his campaign took in about $1.2 million after the news broke.

Why the rating moved

The forecaster said the decision was already in the works before Stevens made her announcement and that the endorsement did not change its view. It pointed to fresh public and private polling, including a weekend survey that showed El-Sayed ahead by 11 points.

Operatives in both parties still expect a closer finish than that. But the same poll suggested El-Sayed has firmed up his support among Black voters, a group that could prove decisive in a close statewide race. The forecaster called the Stevens episode mostly noise this late in the contest.

Rep. Debbie Dingell, a fellow Michigan Democrat, has argued that the endorsement fight is firing up voters to back El-Sayed rather than turning them away.

The bigger Senate map

Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the majority. Holding Michigan was seen as a must for them. Another forecaster on Monday moved Senate races in Maine, Ohio and Texas to lean Democratic. A third model gives El-Sayed about a 75 percent chance of winning.

Rogers, a former congressman and FBI agent, narrowly lost a Senate race in Michigan two years ago. El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director, has made Medicare for All a centerpiece of his campaign.

More than 57 million Americans had already voted before Election Day. Polls in most of Michigan close at 8 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday.