Jon Ossoff widens his lead over Mike Collins in a new Georgia Senate poll

Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has stretched his edge over Republican Rep. Mike Collins in Georgia according to a new poll released this weekend. The race is one of the most watched contests of the midterms.

The numbers

The survey of 1,101 likely voters found Ossoff at 51 percent and Collins at 43 percent. Close to 6 percent said they had not made up their minds. Interviews ran from Oct. 7 through Oct. 9 and the margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 points.

Betting markets lean even harder toward the incumbent. Two of the biggest prediction platforms gave Ossoff roughly a 95 percent chance of keeping his seat as of Sunday.

Why Georgia matters

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. To take control Democrats need to flip four seats while holding every seat they already have and Georgia is near the top of that list.

Republicans point out that Donald Trump carried the state by about 2 points in 2024. Democrats counter that the president's approval has slipped as voters worry about prices and they believe that gives them room in a state that backed Joe Biden in 2020 and reelected Sen. Raphael Warnock in 2022.

Fast growth in metro Atlanta has turned a once reliably Republican state into a true battleground. Black voters in and around the city make up a large share of the Democratic base and both campaigns are working hard for turnout there.

What comes next

Early voting in Georgia is already drawing attention. Election Day is Nov. 3 and both parties expect to pour more money into the state before then.